Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
X-factor: Tony Romo. I have no statistical proof or any evidence that led me to this decision. All I know is that this is my decision. If Tony Romo has a good game, the Cowboys' chances of winning increases. They still have to stop the Vikings' offense, but the overall success of the team lies with Romo.
Why the Cowboys can win: The Cowboys give up only 15.6 points per game, second in the NFL only to the New York Jets. Dallas gives up only 90.5 rushing yards a game, and their linebackers should hold Adrian Peterson to less than his usual 4.4 yards per carry. Dallas also has two wide receivers in the top ten in yards per catch, Miles Austin and Patrick Crayton.
Why the Cowboys can choke: Dallas has a guy named Romo who tends to choke in big games. Their defense only had 19 takeaways this season, second to last in the NFC. Momentum means nothing against top teams.
Why the Vikings can win: The Vikings are undefeated at home. Minnesota went 4-1 against teams that made the playoffs, with the lone loss coming against the Arizona Cardinals, in which Percy Harvin led the team in rushing with 22 yards...this won't happen again. Their defense is second in the NFC in yards per game. And they were considered a Super Bowl favorite for most of the season.
Why the Vikings can choke: Brett Favre and head coach Brad Childress tended to clash this year. The results? 2-3 in the last 5 regular season games, including losses to the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers. Adrian Peterson has become an increasingly inconsistent running back. His yards per carry each game since Week 10 are as follows: 7.4, 3.4, 3.4, 1.5, 3.7, 2.9, 3.9, 6.0. The two games that stand out in a good way came against the Lions and in the Giant Tank Game. So maybe I should switch "inconsistent" to "ineffective".
Semi-Relevant Opinion: The Cowboys need to replace Tony Romo. They will not be a great team with him. He is not very good.
1. Tony Romo wasn't wanted by an FBS college football team. He wasn't originally wanted by an NFL team. He played behind quarterbacks so old and washed-up they made Junior Seau look like Junior Seau, Junior. When did he become good?
2. Name the best quarterbacks in the NFL right now. My list, in a rough order, goes like this: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Phillip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Kurt Warner, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb. Does Romo even enter the debate until after McNabb is named? No. That's twelve quarterbacks before you even think about naming Romo. Which leads me to point number three.
3. If your player, coach, GM, doctor, teacher, accountant, salesman, or whatever else you can think of, is not in the top 25% at his position, then you need to get a better one as soon as possible. With 32 starting quarterbacks in the league, and Tony Romo about 14th in the league, and that's probably being generous, that does not put him in the highest 25%. It's time to get a good quarterback. It is definitely within Dallas's reach- they have the biggest market and the most money- so why not? The Tony Romo era is not working. Maybe they had a couple of solid regular seasons, but this has not translated into any actual success. It's time for Romo to go.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Cowboys 17. The deciding factor was that the Vikings were undefeated at home, including three wins against playoff teams. Could this game go either way? Absolutely. This one could definitely go either way. I see the Vikings winning this game, but would not be the least bit surprised if the Cowboys won.
New York Jets (10-7) at San Diego Chargers (13-3)
X-factor: Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones. One of them, or both, need to have a good game to prevent the Jets offense from becoming one-dimensional. Against a team as good as the Chargers, you need to establish the run and exploit the defensive gap that allowed 4.5 rushing yards per attempt.
Why the Jets can win: They have the best defense in the NFL. No, I didn't expect it either. I never would have predicted it at the beginning of the year. But they lead the league in every important defensive statistic except takeaways. The Jets can shut down any offense, especially a passing-is-the-only-means-of-production offense such as the Chargers.
Why the Jets can choke: I don't know if anyone else has noticed this, but the Jets offense is more than a little shaky. Mark Sanchez can be a typical halfway-competent rookie quarterback. And most importantly, the offense can flat out stink from time to time.
Why the Chargers can win: After the Week 6 loss to the Denver Broncos, the Chargers went into "screw you, we're not gonna lose" mode. They proceded to win the next ten games and hold the longest current winning streak. The Chargers are so good that they tanked the last two games and still won! Philip Rivers might just be so angry that he explodes.
Why the Chargers can choke: Their running game flat out sucks. Former MVP LaDanian Tomlinson averages 3.3 yards per carry. Backup Darren Sproles averages 3.7 a carry. That's not good. The Chargers are known to choke in the playoffs. Philip Rivers might just be so angry that he implodes.
Semi-Relevant Opinion: I don't like Philip Rivers because of his jawing. Jawing in football is different from trash talking in basketball. In basketball, trash talking is part of the game, and when someone stops getting trashed, that implies respect. In football, a team could be losing by thirty in the fourth quarter, but their linebacker will still be jawing if he makes a tackle. This is just dumb, there's no purpose to it. Larry Bird was the best trash talker of all time. Quick trivia question for you- who was the best football jawer of all time? Answer: No one. Not only does it mean nothing (so no one pays attention to it), but they all say the same thing!
Read the lips of football players who jaw. Here's what I got from a select few players- Shawne Merriman: "All day baby! All day!" Michael Strahan: "All day baby! All day!" Sebastian Janokowski: "Całe dziecko dnia! Cały dzień!" Ok, bad example, but you get my point.
Prediction: Jets 17, Chargers 10. No, seriously. The Chargers rushing offense will go nowhere, as it usually does, and the Jets secondary will demolish the pass. I think.
-Tucker Warner
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