Arizona Cardinals (11-6) at New Orleans Saints (13-3)
X-factor: Kurt Warner. He has the best completion percentage in NFL playoff history, he is second on the career playoff list for completion percentage, and he is throwing to the best wide receiver in the league. Need I say more?
Why the Cardinals can win: The Cardinals can score at will. They make big plays in clutch situations. Kurt Warner is one of the best playoff quarterbacks of all time, and he might have a little extra heart because this might be his last year. They scored 51 points last week, against the same team that held them to only 7 in Week 17. According to SCOUTS, Inc, the Cardinals have the advantage at every position except for offensive line and defensive backs. They retain pretty much the same team that won the NFC Championship last year.
Why the Cardinals can choke: Their quarterback is 38 years old and is about as mobile as a mountain. (Really. During Round 1 against the Packers, Warner was facing a 3rd and 6 late in the fourth quarter. The blitz came from the sides and there was a big gap in the line where Warner could have handily [In order to not make the first down by running, he would've had to pull a Mary Decker...or a hamstring] ran for the first. He stepped back and threw instead. Still got the first, but that's beside the point.) Their running game is average at best. They gave up 45 points to the Packers and allowed them to come back from a 20-plus deficit.
Why the Saints can win: That's virtually all they did this season, until they unintentionally intentionally lost, but that's another story. They became so good at scoring, at one point they were able to score six points by downing the ball. Drew Brees got so many yards through the air that Southwest Airlines awarded him frequent flier points. Their running game is multi-dimensional- the Saints have three guys who can run the ball efficiently.
Why the Saints can choke: Did you see the past few games? They lost a close game to the Cowboys (didn't tank or choke), lost in overtime to the Buccaneers (didn't tank, just choked), and lost to the Panthers (tanked and choked- on a related note, backup quarterback Mark Brunell's line from that game looked like this: 15/29, 102 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 45.5 passer rating. 45.5??? Isn't that Brunell's age?). The Saints haven't soundly beaten an opponent since Week 12.
Semi-Relevant Opinion: The Over/Under for this game is 57. Last week, the Cardinals scored 51 points themselves. I'm taking the under, or I would if I was of legal gambling age.
Completely Irrelevant Opinion: How is it possible that an 18 year old American citizen can serve in the Armed Forces, but can't bet two hundred bucks on a Patriots game? This is ridiculous.
Prediction: Cardinals 31, Saints 24. No, really. The Cardinals have Kurt Warner, in the playoffs, against a defense that gave up 30 points to the Redskins.
Baltimore Ravens (10-7) at Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
X-factor: Peyton Manning. He won the MVP award, and by all accounts is the best quarterback in the NFL, and one of the five best of all time. (Don't argue against me. It's true.)
Why the Ravens can win: To be honest, I'm not so sure they can win. If anything works, it will be their running game- Ray Rice and Willis McGahee are perhaps the best running back tandem in the league. This won't happen though.
Outlandish Statement: If the Ravens beat the Colts this weekend, I will bury myself alive!
Why the Ravens can choke: The Ravens haven't beaten the Colts since December 2001. In the regular season, the Ravens were 1-6 against teams who made the playoffs. Joe Flacco is non-existant in clutch situations, especially in the playoffs (last week he only completed 4 passes of his 10 attempts, for 34 yards).
Why the Colts can win: The Colts have not lost a game they were actually trying to win. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in the NFL. Not only have the Colts beaten the Ravens in their past four meetings, but they have also covered the point spread. The Colts are the best team in the NFL.
Why the Colts can lose: This is the only hope the Ravens have. The Colts will need to choke, and choke big, for the Ravens to win this game. Peyton Manning threw five interceptions in a loss to the Chargers a few years ago. The Ravens have a secondary that is good enough to make this happen, but the odds of Peyton Manning choking like a chain smoker on a playoff game in Saturday are about one in a million, if that. Good luck Baltimore.
Semi-Relevant Opinion: The Ravens can win with Joe Flacco only if they improve their receiving corps. The Ravens top three receiving leaders are a productive-but-old wideout (Derrick Mason), a running back (Ray Rice), and a tight end (Todd Heap). None of the other receivers have ever caught more than seven passes in a game, and never more than 100 yars in a game. Of the top three, one will retire within two years (he already retired once! It will happen again!) and one is not a downfield option by definition. I'll admit that Heap will continue to be a productive option for the next few years, but is a tight end what you really want as the future of your receiving team?
Prediction: Colts 34, Ravens 13. Would I be flabbergasted by an upset by the Ravens? It's professional sports, of course not. However, I would be willing to wager an non-vital organ on the Colts if the payoff was over $10,000. Again, this is only if I was of legal gambling age.
Stay tuned for Part II!
-Tucker
No comments:
Post a Comment