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Saturday, September 11, 2010

2010 NFL Preview and Predictions

You can contact Tucker Warner by email at firstteemulligan@yahoo.com or on Twitter at http://twitter.com/twarner50

AFC East

1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills

If the NFL was the World Cup, this would be the Group of Death. 3 good teams who will compete for a spot in the playoffs, and North Korea (Buffalo).

Let's start with the Patriots. Tom Brady might not be as good as he was before his knee injury, but he will be significantly better than last year, given that his injury takes two years to fully recover from. The additions of rookies Rob Gronkowski (an Arizona graduate, and the best NCAA player last year that you never heard about), and Aaron Hernandez (a favorite target of Tim Tebow while at Florida) help make the receiving corps for New England one of the best in the league. Of course, they'll get some help from a couple of guys named Moss and Welker. Their defense will continue to be solid as always, and the overall defensive production will not change much.

The Jets will probably be the most interesting team of the season. (Hard Knocks tends to do that to a team.) Some experts say the Jets will go to the Super Bowl this year. Others say they will miss the playoffs. It's easy to forget that the Jets were 9-7 last year. It's also easy to forget that the Jets had both the best defenses and offensive lines in the NFL last year. For them to make the Super Bowl, their offensive production will have to explode. For them to miss the playoffs, their defense will have to be all kinds of bad.

The Miami Dolphins are probably the least interesting team in the league. Fun to watch, sure, with their Wildcat offense, but not interesting. They'll probably go 8-8 this year. Their quarterbacks, Chad Henne, Chad Pennington, and Tyler Thigpen, have all been starters before, but none is that much better than the other. Their draft picks this year were solid infrastructure guys, but none of them were anything to get excited about. Could they potentially make the playoffs? Sure. Could they miss them by one or two games? Of course. What they can't do is make a deep playoff run or flop. They seem incapable of doing any better or worse than average this year.

As for the Bills, you should probably know what to expect for the upcoming season. Trent Edwards is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, the rest of their offense doesn't have a whole lot of upside, and their defense has more holes than Swiss cheese. Let's move on to a more intriguing subject: Chan Gailey. Last year, Gailey was hired to be the interim head coach for Buffalo after they fired Dick Jauron mid-season. I don't know how else to put this, but Gailey should not be the head coach for a professional football team. 2010 will be the fifth full year that Gailey will coach a professional team. In 1991 and 1992 he coached the Birmingham Fire of the WLAF to a combines 12-7-1 record. He never won a playoff game. In 1998 and 1999, he coached the Dallas Cowboys at the tail end of their dynasty years to a combined 18-14 record. They still never won a playoff game. It's not even as if you could justify his hiring with a stellar resume in college football. As the head coach of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Gailey led his team to a combined 44-32 record over six seasons. However, they won more than seven games only once, and were 2-4 in bowl games. So to recap, that's a bad coach with a worse team. At least Buffalo still has the Sabres.

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns

Disclaimer: I do think the Steelers are a better team than the Ravens. I have the Steelers ranked second because Roethlisberger's suspension will cost them a couple games that they would have won had their starting quarterback not been a moron. By the way, I think it's safe to say that your team has a discipline problem when your quarterback has been arrested for the same crime twice in the span of just over a year.

Moving on. Baltimore's defense looks stellar, as always, but injuries to Ed Reed and Domonique Foxworth will set them back a bit. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens offense seems to be building around Joe Flacco. Their receiving corps is now probably the best in the league (Anquan Boldin! TJ Houshmandzadeh! Derrick Mason! Donte Stallworth!) and their running backs are no slouches themselves- Ray Rice is an emerging star and Willis McGahee is a more than competent backup. And they drafted really well.

As you can tell, I'm big on the Ravens this year. If the disclaimer told you anything, I'm just as big on the Steelers. Their star players are finally healthy and their defense will revert back to their dominating ways. The problems? Both the O-line and D-line are aging. The additions of Jonathan Scott and Maurkice Pouncey will take some of the pressure off the offensive line, but they are not solid enough as a unit.

The Cincinnati Bengals are destined for third place this year, barring a collapse by the Steelers. The most interesting thing about this team: The combined audiences for The T.O. Show and Ochocinco: The Ultimate Catch do not equal the audience for Hard Knocks, featuring the New York Jets, who also beat the Bengals in the playoffs last year.

The Cleveland Browns are a worst/best case scenario team. Worst case: They go 5-11. Best case: They go 3-13 and are able to draft whatever star quarterback they want in the 2011 draft. I'm as big a fan of Colt McCoy as anyone, but he's not going to get it done. Seneca Wallace and Jake Delhomme-less aren't the guys either. The defense is improving, slowly but positively. (Any improvement is a good sign for the Browns.) If they could land Jake Locker (Washington) or another QB of like ability in the 2011 draft, the Browns could be a playoff team in the future.

AFC South

1. Indianaplis Colts
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars

The winner of the AFC South is never hard to predict. The Colts will win the division again. They lost very few important players, addded more infrastructure players, and are going to win the division again.

This might sound bold, but I believe it: The Titans have a chance at winning the Super Bowl. It looks sketchy at first, but think about it. Vince Young is entering his peak, they went 8-2 in the last ten games last season, and Jeff Fisher teams always win more games than expected. It's not a stretch to say that they could make a run towards the championship this year.

The Texans seem to always be a team that is picked to be a sleeper. I've bought in the past two years; this year I'm not buying in. Matt Schaub is great when healthy, but he might be overdue for an injury this year. The defense was strong last year, but apart from Mario Williams, Brian Cushing, and DeMeco Ryans, there isn't a lot of talent. The running backs and secondary will have to improve this year for Houston to make the playoffs.

And then there's the Jaguars. David Garrard is not good enough to lead a playoff-level passing attack, and the offensive isn't good enough to significantly help Maurice Jones-Drew. Oh yeah, and their blitz is awful- the Jags only made 14 sacks last year, worst in the NFL.

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers
2. Denver Broncos
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Kansas City Chiefs

Yikes. The Need-To-Re-Chargers are the best team in this division, and it will be hard for them to win a playoff game. Problems: No proven running game, chemistry problems, a head-strong quarterback, and holdouts. And also, there is only one downfield target for Phillip Rivers for the first three games due to Vincent Jackson's suspension. The Chargers are this year's winner of the Process of Elimination Award for receiving a playoff berth simply because no one else in their division was going to.

The Broncos are um...well, um...average. They're an 8-8 team. I think Josh McDaniels could be the Coach of the Future, but he's gonna need a good team to make it to the playoffs. Even though McDaniels made Matt Cassell look good when he was quarterbacks coach for New England, the rest of the Broncos offense is not close to the Patriots offense. Good times are not yet here for the Broncos.

I think the Raiders will surprise a lot of people this year. Jason Campbell isn't one of the better quarterbacks in the league, but he's a lot better than JaMarcus Russell ever was. This will be the year Darren McFadden finally makes the leap to a top ten running back, and the defense, led by Nnamdi Asomugha, is better than commonly thought. Expect the Raiders to give the Chargers a scare in the standings in about Week 12.

Like I said in the Broncos section, Matt Cassell is not exactly who you want leading your football team. The Chiefs' youth will help them win a few games, fortunately. Their secondary also gained a huge boost with the additions of draftees Eric Berry (Tennessee) and Javier Arenas (Alabama).

NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Washington Redskins
3. New York Giants
4. Philadelphia Eagles

This is the toughest division to predict every year, and 2010 is no exception. Any one of these teams could win the division. I'm picking the Cowboys because I like their depth at running back and their finish from last year. They have a fairly big problem with the offensive line, but they can still finish atop the NFC East. Don't expect a playoff run this year, though.

Living in the suburbs of Washington, D.C., I'm exposed to, um, "optimistic" pieces on the Redskins' chances for the upcoming season every year. This year, I'm buying in. Mike Shanahan can make any running back a 1500-yard rusher, and Donovan McNabb will complement a well-rounded offense. The O-line, the cause of most of the Redskins' problems over the past few years, has been revamped, the coaching system has completely changed, and there is a new style of football in Washington. They have everything set up perfectly for a comeback.

The Giants have struggled since their Super Bowl win three years ago. Things are looking up and down this year. Up: Brandon Jacobs is back, they drafted well in the middle rounds, the defense can only improve from last year, and they only missed a playoff spot by one game in 2009. Down: The O-line is old, they have no receiver that stands out, and Tom Coughlin will inevitably screw up again.

As for the Eagles, it's just tough to say at this point. Kevin Kolb looked pretty impressive while filling in for Donovan McNabb last season, but it's hard to say what he will do while being the starter for a whole season. If this column was one of those Predictor Challenge fantasy games, this pick would be lowest on my confidence rating.

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Chicago Bears
4. Detroit Lions

Green Bay is winning the division this year. Aaron Rodgers is my pick to win the Offensive Player of the Year Award. Their defense is one of the best in the league, and their draft was under-the-radar good. The only problem is that two of their msot important players, Charles Woodson and Donald Driver, are aging- Woodson is 33 and Driver is 35. They will both start regressing this year.

The Vikings will not make the playoffs this year. Their success this year relies primarily on Brett Favre. For the Vikings to replicate the success of the previous year, here is what needs to happen: go undefeated at home again (because they didn't beat even an above average team away from Minnesota), and Brett Favre needs to have the same type of year as last season. The problem is that last year was the best statistical year of Favre's career and this year, his top two receivers have health and injury concerns. Not exactly a recipe for success.

The Bears have a multitude of questions this year. Will Brian Urlacher be able to regain the talent he had before the injury that kept him sidelined last year? Will Jay Cutler look like he resembles a playoff quarterback? Will they have any success in the red zone, on either side of the football, this year? The answers all point towards "No".

As for the Lions, at least it could be worse. Matt Stafford and Jahvid Best will lead the offense to at least competency. Ndamukong Suh will at least help out the defensive line. I wish I could say better for them, but it could be worse.

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The reigning Super Bowl champions will not be quite as good as last season, but they will certainly win the division again. Drew Brees is either the best or second-best quarterback in the league, and the offense will be just as dominant as last season. Once again, the problem is the inconsistency of the defense.

The Falcons are another rebound team. This year will look more like 2008 than 2009 for Atlanta. Matt Ryan will come back from his sophomore slump, and Michael Turner will make a lot of fantasy owners happy. The concerns center around the secondary and passing defense, but the addition of Dunta Robinson will help a little.

I think Carolina Panthers head coach John Fox is a lot better than he gets credit for. I also think Matt Moore is better than he gets credit for. At any rate, he's better than Jake Delhomme. The running back tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is still great, but the defense will miss Julius Peppers.

As for the Buccaneers, I don't see how they're going to score. They're starting Josh Freeman at quarterback, his only target is a tight end, and Cadillac "Carnell" Williams only scored 4 rushing touchdowns last year. Oh yeah, and head coach Raheem Morris's seat is scalding. At least Tampa Bay has the Rays.

NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals/Seattle Seahawks/St. Louis Rams (3-way tie for futility)

You know the old saying, "save the best for last"? Well, I apologize to people who live by that sentiment. The 49ers are the best team in this division, and they would be pretty good anyway, but they could win 12 games in this division. Alex Smith will finally show why he was the number 1 overall draft pick in 2005, and the defense will improve even more from last season.

As for the Cardinals, you know your season is bad when the quarterback projected to start at the beginning of training camp is behind Dan Orlovsky on the depth chart. (Speaking of which, that means a UConn alum is in front of a USC Heisman winner. Husky football is finally here!) At least Derek Anderson has Larry Fitzgerald to throw to. Sorry, that should read "aim at". Anderson will get picked off 20 times this year.

The Seahawks have an aging quarterback teamed up with a coach whose only success with a professional football team came in college football. You can't tell me that Pete Carroll won't be distracted by the NCAA sanctions at USC.

And then there's the Rams. Sam Bradford will be a good quarterback, but we don't know when. Steven Jackson is not as good as people think- his fantasy stats are inflated because of a total lack of passing success over the past few years. On the bright side, they have a better defense than the Lions.

AFC Playoff Teams: New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets

NFC Playoff Teams: New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons

AFC Championship Game: Patriots over Ravens

NFC Championship Game: Packers over Saints

Super Bowl: Patriots over Packers

-Tucker Warner